Iowa is Coming (the Goose is Getting Fat)

With only three days left before the Iowa Caucus, it’s probably time to chance a few predictions. After equal parts research, poll watching and gut-feelings, I believe the Democratic winners in Iowa will be, in first-to-third order: John Edwards, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. There will be only a point or two separating the positions and none of the three will be severely damaged by their showing, although Hillary’s long-tarnished aura of inevitability will receive another coat of oxidation.

On the Republican side, the top three winners (again in first-to-third order) will be Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and (here, I’m going out a bit on a limb) John McCain. Conventional wisdom maintains that Fred Thompson will place third, but I believe his star is fading rapidly.

There will be a couple of things to watch. First will be the showing of Ron Paul. He’s popular with college students and, if he can get them out to caucus, he might actually place fourth in Iowa. Also, one might keep an eye on Hillary’s numbers. If her ultimate total is significantly below what her poll numbers would indicate, there may be a hidden “second thoughts about Hillary” constituency. These will be caucus goers who have been telling pollsters that they would stand behind Hillary but, at the moment of truth, caucus instead for Edwards or Obama. If this phenomena appears, look for it to strengthen significantly in the New Hampshire and later primaries.

Soon after Iowa and New Hampshire, look for some of the candidates to yield to reality and drop out of the race. Not among this number will be the previously mentioned Ron Paul. He has built a following among the libertarian-inclined and has raised far more money than expected. Dennis Kucinich will also stay around. He has neither great funds nor a large following, but he does have a low-maintenance, low-cost campaign and a head full of ideas he would like to share with the country.

One of those who will drop out will be Joe Bidden – a liberal candidate with an obvious hair transplant who doesn’t play well with voters away from the east coast. Since he probably won’t be around long, let me say now that, at least on the issue of Iraq, he has my respect. I disagree with him on many things, but when it comes to the war, he has a concrete plan that could actually result in a lasting peace or at least what passes for it in that part of the world. He envisions a federated Iraq with Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis having “breathing room in their own regions.” As I’ve pointed out before, any loss in Iraq will not be from an American military defeat, but rather from the Iraqi political mess left in our wake. (For more on this, see my editorial of 12/6/06). Bidden at least attempts to handle this near inevitability with creativity, logic and realistic ideas.

Change of Profession (sort of)

Times change and people change and I'm no exception. After several years as a community college librarian, I have now returned to working in K-12 education. I've taken a position as a student advisor (guidance counselor without the clinical counseling) at a small, rural Kansas high school. Thus far I love the work and hope to stay there until I retire. Those who knew me in high school are probably amazed at my current position, considering some of the deeds (and misdeeds) I pulled off during my own high school years. But, hopefully, the experiences I gained during those years will help me guide young lives and mold young minds. In other words, not make the same mistakes I made.

As I leave the library profession for the second and, probably, last time, I feel that I should make a few observations in passing. After all, I spent nearly 20 years in the profession - serving in high school, public, college and university libraries - and should have learned a few things along the way. So here goes:
(1) Technology is changing libraries almost beyond recognition and, in general, librarians and their everpresent bosses - the administrators and board members - have not kept pace. Computers are often too few in number at libraries and the people in charge often can't quite grasp the fact that, if they offer a wireless connection, people will actually use their own laptops. What Starbucks has known for years seems to be above the heads of many people in charge of libraries.
(2) The American Library Association is largely a liberal organization, stuck in the late 1960s and unable to comprehend the changing world about them. This applies both to the world of technology and the world of politics. The association dropped the ball badly on Cuba and doesn't seem able to rectify, or even admit, that mistake.
(3) Library science is largely a female dominated profession and, sadly, many of those women fail to see that more men in the profession would be a good thing. They are disgusted by the scarcity of male patrons, but are offended by the suggestion that more male librarians would likely mean more male patrons.

So now, I say goodbye to the library profession and look forward to fighting new battles on the K-12 education front. For those who read this blog, I say that I am basically the same person as before. I'm still a Republican with a strong Liberterian streak who believes that government does best when it stays out of citizen's lives and lets them make their own mistakes. I believe the federal government should concentrate on national security, state and local governments should concentrate on law and order, and school boards should concentrate on producing productive, well informed and clear thinking citizens. I have a tendency to be a protectionist when it comes to trade, but I recognize that battle has already been fought and that free enterprise won. With the advent of the World Wide Web, ideas, knowledge and trade have all become international and nothing short of nuclear war or a massive gamma ray burst is going to change that.

So, stay tuned. I'm still in the commentary game.

A Moment of Reflection on Pop Tarts and Talent

The nicest thing about having your own blog is the freedom to write about anything you damn well please, and right now I'd like to write (some would probably say "waste") a few lines about the latest female pop singer to hit the radar: Avril Lavigne. In short, I like her. I couldn't name any of her song titles (okay, I can actually name two: "Girlfriend" and "My Happy Ending), but I've seen her perform on television and I salute her for being able to actually sit in front of a band and a microphone and sing, rather than just lip-synch.

It's too early to say whether the 23-year-old Canadian belongs in the truly talented category of young female singers, whose numbers include Shakira and Christina Aguilera. But she's certainly a step above the clearly untalented Pop Tart performers such as Britney Spears, Ashley Simpson, Hilary Duff and, when she's trying to sing instead of act, Lindsay Lohan. I also like the fact that Avril has staked out a slightly rebellious look and image that, at least thus far, seem genuine. At least she hasn't fallen into the trap that Pink gladly climbed into - that of promoting an anti-Britney image as a substitute for perfecting one's own unique abilities. Instead, Avril looks pretty much like many of the working class girls you knew in high school: small, thin with a head of bleached blond hair and enough eye make-up to put Liza Minnelli to shame.

Finally, I'm encouraged that Avril doesn't take herself, or her causes, too seriously. She's participated in at least one Saturday Night Live skit that poked fun at overly young, Hollywood talent. And she's an admittedly failed vegetarian, who sometimes gives in to her weakness for cheeseburgers - something true believing, meat-Nazi vegetarians probably find offensive.

In short, she seems to be someone worth keeping an eye on. If she can avoid the usual pitfalls of anorexia, self-righteousness and cookie cutter promotional images, she may have something genuine to offer the world of music and teenage idols.

(For those who worry I've fallen into the same trap that swallowed the mainsteam media - that of substituting tabloid journalism for real news - I can only say, stay calm. I'll soon be back, comentating on more substantial and important issues).