National Debt

Let's face it. Both political parties are being disingenuous about our federal budget and the national debt. Republicans are putting forth the illusion that we can balance the budget and pay off the debt by cutting expenses, while Democrats are insinuating we can do the same by simply raising taxes on the wealthy.

Both parties are - to put it bluntly - full of crap. If we have any hope of balancing the budget we will need to both make dramatic cuts in our expenses and raise taxes. These cuts will need to be far more severe than any politician is willing to admit and will need to include cuts to such sacred items as defense and social security. Likewise, the increased taxes will need to be levied not just on the wealthy, but on virtually all tax payers. Remember, if we would somehow balance the budget tomorrow, we would still need to pay off $15 trillion in loans which we, as a nation, have already acquired.

There are those, including President Obama, who would like to delay such balancing and repayment until our economy is healthier. But I say that delay could invite economic disaster. The interest rate we pay now for our debts is "bargain basement." The Federal Reserve - in an effort to encourage borrowing - has reduced the national interest rate to between 0.00 and 0.25 percent. However, that is sure to rise as our economy improves. Therefore, money borrowed now is relatively cheap. But money borrowed later - when interest rates are higher - will be much more expensive. The federal government is currently paying a miserly 0.60 interest rate on Series EE Savings Bonds. That will need to change when the economy improves.

Therefore we, at the very least, need to make the necessary sacrifices now and balance our budget. We certainly can't afford to borrow more money later when increased interest rates could, literally, break the bank.

War and Numbers

The war in Afghanistan continues to dominate US foreign concerns while, on the domestic front, we are, understandably, fixated on three sets of numbers.

The war has run its course long ago and has, predictably, turned sour for the United States. Whatever good we hoped to do - such as bringing down the Taliban controlled government of that Middle East country - was accomplished long ago. The Afghans have grown tired of our presence, especially after the recent accidental burning of the Korans and the tragic shooting of Afghan civilians by a US soldier. To be perfectly honest, the US efforts in the country are probably now counterproductive; we may well be doing more harm to US-Afghan relations than good.

This is the almost certain result of an undeclared war, entered without following the Powell Doctrine. We could not define "victory" when we entered the war and we did not have an exit strategy. Consequently, we now have a mess on our hands, one that is proving difficult and bloody to wash away. It seems to be a lesson we have to learn each generation and this time we learned it twice over - in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, back in the US, we are focused on three numbers: the number of delegates Mitt Romney has gathered, the price of gasoline and the unemployment rate.

Romney's struggle to acquire delegates has proven more difficult than I predicted. At this writing, he has just lost the Mississippi and Alabama primaries to Rick Santorum. I still believe Romney will, in the end, earn the nomination, but it is proving to be a difficult struggle.

Most people, however, are more concerned with the price of gas. Every time they fill up their tank, they are keenly aware of the sacrifices that will need to be made for the purchase. Entertainment, savings and, in some cases, even the quality and variety of food must be placed on the altar as people make financial sacrifices to get to work, home and school. This obviously cannot be good for the economy. The rising price of gas could easily stall an already shaky recovery.

But even the price of gas pales in comparison to the unemployment figures. The cost of filling your gas tank is important, but not as important as your job. Whether or not you have a place of employment trumps just about everything else and, in fact, I am willing to predict that the unemployment rate will, in the end, decide the next president. If the unemployment rate continues to improve, President Obama will be reelected. However, if the current 8.3 percent unemployment rate should begin to rise again toward double digit figures, the Republican nominee will stand a very good chance of occupying the White House.