Iowa is Coming (the Goose is Getting Fat)

With only three days left before the Iowa Caucus, it’s probably time to chance a few predictions. After equal parts research, poll watching and gut-feelings, I believe the Democratic winners in Iowa will be, in first-to-third order: John Edwards, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. There will be only a point or two separating the positions and none of the three will be severely damaged by their showing, although Hillary’s long-tarnished aura of inevitability will receive another coat of oxidation.

On the Republican side, the top three winners (again in first-to-third order) will be Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and (here, I’m going out a bit on a limb) John McCain. Conventional wisdom maintains that Fred Thompson will place third, but I believe his star is fading rapidly.

There will be a couple of things to watch. First will be the showing of Ron Paul. He’s popular with college students and, if he can get them out to caucus, he might actually place fourth in Iowa. Also, one might keep an eye on Hillary’s numbers. If her ultimate total is significantly below what her poll numbers would indicate, there may be a hidden “second thoughts about Hillary” constituency. These will be caucus goers who have been telling pollsters that they would stand behind Hillary but, at the moment of truth, caucus instead for Edwards or Obama. If this phenomena appears, look for it to strengthen significantly in the New Hampshire and later primaries.

Soon after Iowa and New Hampshire, look for some of the candidates to yield to reality and drop out of the race. Not among this number will be the previously mentioned Ron Paul. He has built a following among the libertarian-inclined and has raised far more money than expected. Dennis Kucinich will also stay around. He has neither great funds nor a large following, but he does have a low-maintenance, low-cost campaign and a head full of ideas he would like to share with the country.

One of those who will drop out will be Joe Bidden – a liberal candidate with an obvious hair transplant who doesn’t play well with voters away from the east coast. Since he probably won’t be around long, let me say now that, at least on the issue of Iraq, he has my respect. I disagree with him on many things, but when it comes to the war, he has a concrete plan that could actually result in a lasting peace or at least what passes for it in that part of the world. He envisions a federated Iraq with Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis having “breathing room in their own regions.” As I’ve pointed out before, any loss in Iraq will not be from an American military defeat, but rather from the Iraqi political mess left in our wake. (For more on this, see my editorial of 12/6/06). Bidden at least attempts to handle this near inevitability with creativity, logic and realistic ideas.