The Prognosis for Healthcare
Chief Justice John Roberts did more than save ObamaCare from the dustbins of history. He also saved the president from becoming Jimmy Carter.
Some late night talk show hosts were already referring to Obama as a "one term" and "ineffective" president, echoing the jabs given to Carter just before he lost the 1980 election to Ronald Reagan. These present day digs will likely now cease. For better or worse, the perception of Obama as ineffective will probably now lack enough validity to be worthy of late night humor. Combined with the death of Osama bin Laden and the winding down of the Iraqi War, this recent rescue of his healthcare bill puts Obama in a good position to win reelection. Only the economy and unemployment could change that. If either, or both, go south, ObamaCare will suddenly be pushed further down the voters' priority list.
The House Republicans apparently intend to attempt a repeal of ObamaCare. Their efforts will, at best, be symbolic. They may well get their measure passed in the House. But the Senate Republicans, lacking 60 votes, will not even get a chance to vote on the repeal. Lurking behind it all, of course, is the knowledge that President Obama would veto any law that killed, or even significantly altered, ObamaCare.
My advice to Republicans is to take the repeal vote in the House and then - as much as possible - try to forget about Obamacare. The timing is not good for Republicans to use the health care law as a talking point. Right now voters are seeing the benefits of ObamaCare, such as additional protection for their children, but have yet to see the negatives, such as skyrocketing premiums and possibly even loss of their current health care plans. I am confident that both negatives will eventually come to light. Insurance companies will rise premiums, maybe through the roof, and there are employers who currently offer health insurance but will eventually decide to pay a penalty (AKA a "tax") rather than pay steadily increasing premiums for their workers.
But these eventualities are down the road. They will not be present for the 2012 election. Republicans, especially Romney, can not win by running against ObamaCare. Their best bet is to try to convince voters that they can put America back to work.
Some late night talk show hosts were already referring to Obama as a "one term" and "ineffective" president, echoing the jabs given to Carter just before he lost the 1980 election to Ronald Reagan. These present day digs will likely now cease. For better or worse, the perception of Obama as ineffective will probably now lack enough validity to be worthy of late night humor. Combined with the death of Osama bin Laden and the winding down of the Iraqi War, this recent rescue of his healthcare bill puts Obama in a good position to win reelection. Only the economy and unemployment could change that. If either, or both, go south, ObamaCare will suddenly be pushed further down the voters' priority list.
The House Republicans apparently intend to attempt a repeal of ObamaCare. Their efforts will, at best, be symbolic. They may well get their measure passed in the House. But the Senate Republicans, lacking 60 votes, will not even get a chance to vote on the repeal. Lurking behind it all, of course, is the knowledge that President Obama would veto any law that killed, or even significantly altered, ObamaCare.
My advice to Republicans is to take the repeal vote in the House and then - as much as possible - try to forget about Obamacare. The timing is not good for Republicans to use the health care law as a talking point. Right now voters are seeing the benefits of ObamaCare, such as additional protection for their children, but have yet to see the negatives, such as skyrocketing premiums and possibly even loss of their current health care plans. I am confident that both negatives will eventually come to light. Insurance companies will rise premiums, maybe through the roof, and there are employers who currently offer health insurance but will eventually decide to pay a penalty (AKA a "tax") rather than pay steadily increasing premiums for their workers.
But these eventualities are down the road. They will not be present for the 2012 election. Republicans, especially Romney, can not win by running against ObamaCare. Their best bet is to try to convince voters that they can put America back to work.
posted by dlh | 7:26 AM
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