Primary Season - 2012
We are about to enter the 2012 primary season. The action will, of course, center on the Republicans who must decide which of the numerous competitors will go against President Barack Obama. The Democrats obviously have their candidate. I am not one of those who believe that Hillary Clinton will challenge Obama this time around. She has her eye on 2016.
About a month from now, Iowa will hold its primary, followed shortly by New Hampshire and then by South Carolina. By the end of January, when Florida holds its primary, I believe we will have chosen the Republican nominee. The later primaries will mainly be campaign opportunities for the lead Republican to make his talking points, issue his sound bites and strengthen his attacks on Obama.
Like most, I believe the nominee will be Mitt Romney. The process has already culled the pack down to two candidates, even before the first primary vote has been cast, with Newt Gingrich being the last viable challenge to Romney. The anti-Romney Republicans have already run through the other challengers and found them all deficient, or at least not electable. Michele Bachman had her moment, and then faded into the background. Rick Perry became fodder for late night talk show hosts with his mangled memory and dissipated message. And Herman Cain's sexual past caught up with him and pushed his 9-9-9 mantra into obscurity.
As for the others: Ron Paul has some excellent libertarian ideas, but has never been able to expand his followers much beyond a few hundred thousand, hard core Paulites. Jon Huntsman, who has a reputation for being personable and intelligent, was unfairly held back by his religion. Huntsman, like Romney, is a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints and let us be perfectly frank for a moment. Much of the anti-Romney crowd near sightedly objects to having a Mormon in the White House. So, the likelihood that select group would turn to Huntsman is non-existent.
The only other candidate with his head (barely) above water is Rick Santorum. His campaign simply never caught fire, or the attention of Republican voters.
Gingrich, like Cain, has his own problems when it comes to women and reputation, and they are serious enough to keep him from being the Republican nominee. However, I don't believe they will keep him from being second on the ticket. If I had to make a prediction now, I would say that we will see a Romney-Gingrich Republican ticket in the national election.
This will actually be a strong ticket. Once he is officially the nominee, Romney will be seen as being pragmatic, which most independent voters will like, rather than being moderate, which conservatives disliked. Gingrich, on the other hand, has many good ideas, such as utilizing Lean Sigma Six principles to make the federal government more efficient and less costly. He is capable of articulating his ideas well and is known as a solid debater.
About a month from now, Iowa will hold its primary, followed shortly by New Hampshire and then by South Carolina. By the end of January, when Florida holds its primary, I believe we will have chosen the Republican nominee. The later primaries will mainly be campaign opportunities for the lead Republican to make his talking points, issue his sound bites and strengthen his attacks on Obama.
Like most, I believe the nominee will be Mitt Romney. The process has already culled the pack down to two candidates, even before the first primary vote has been cast, with Newt Gingrich being the last viable challenge to Romney. The anti-Romney Republicans have already run through the other challengers and found them all deficient, or at least not electable. Michele Bachman had her moment, and then faded into the background. Rick Perry became fodder for late night talk show hosts with his mangled memory and dissipated message. And Herman Cain's sexual past caught up with him and pushed his 9-9-9 mantra into obscurity.
As for the others: Ron Paul has some excellent libertarian ideas, but has never been able to expand his followers much beyond a few hundred thousand, hard core Paulites. Jon Huntsman, who has a reputation for being personable and intelligent, was unfairly held back by his religion. Huntsman, like Romney, is a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints and let us be perfectly frank for a moment. Much of the anti-Romney crowd near sightedly objects to having a Mormon in the White House. So, the likelihood that select group would turn to Huntsman is non-existent.
The only other candidate with his head (barely) above water is Rick Santorum. His campaign simply never caught fire, or the attention of Republican voters.
Gingrich, like Cain, has his own problems when it comes to women and reputation, and they are serious enough to keep him from being the Republican nominee. However, I don't believe they will keep him from being second on the ticket. If I had to make a prediction now, I would say that we will see a Romney-Gingrich Republican ticket in the national election.
This will actually be a strong ticket. Once he is officially the nominee, Romney will be seen as being pragmatic, which most independent voters will like, rather than being moderate, which conservatives disliked. Gingrich, on the other hand, has many good ideas, such as utilizing Lean Sigma Six principles to make the federal government more efficient and less costly. He is capable of articulating his ideas well and is known as a solid debater.
posted by dlh | 5:59 AM
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